5/13 – The Chief’s “Heavy Rain, Severe Threat Continues” Monday Afternoon Forecast

THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERITY. The Flood Watch will remain as rainfall amounts are still coming in from 3 to 6 inches with the highest of these numbers over coastal Mississippi through 7am Tuesday. Once the second system moves to the east, it will clean the area(clearing skies and stable conditions). This should occur by Tuesday afternoon.

The frontal boundary that is helping to cause all of this will have sunk back into the gulf by late Tuesday. The next upper feature will then move out into the plains by mid-week with surface return flow forcing this boundary back to the north moving back over the area possibly as early as Thursday and this whole thing looks to play out again similar to this event. The first disturbance moves through midday Thursday and may hug the coast. This should be associated with the warm front. The next main system will move along the cold frontal interface as it stalls across the area with an abundance of deep moisture Fri. This is at least one solution, but as one can clearly see with the current system, this will almost surely change several times before we get there. The general synoptic structure looks valid, but we will definitely need to get closer to even think of resolving the smaller scale features.