8/24 – Chris’s “Heat and Tropics” Thursday Evening Forecast

Unfortunately little change in the overall pattern is expected through the end of this week as high pressure remains dominant. However currently there is an overall weakness in the pattern overhead causing cloud coverage and a shower or two. This is unfortunately not enough rainfall to cut into our severe drought. Despite the slight weakening of the high pressure temperatures will remain well above average as dry low level conditions allow for rapid heating each day this weekend. Highs will easily climb into the upper 90s. These dry conditions will also limit heat index values to around 110 degrees max, and conditions will be more supportive of heat advisories both Friday and Saturday instead of the excessive heat warnings seen the past several days. The drier air will also push relative humidity values down to near 30 percent each afternoon. Given the dry fuel conditions in place, the low humidity and winds of near 10 mph has resulted in additional red flag warnings for tomorrow for our area.

Little change in the overall pattern is expected on Sunday with another day of highs in the upper 90s with the chances to see afternoon showers and thunderstorms. However, conditions will begin to transition on Monday as a front moves to the central portions of our state increasing rain chances with mid 90s expected.

A full pattern change is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday as the front is overhead and  a potential tropical system advances through the eastern Gulf and towards Florida. The combination of these features will allow for a fairly strong frontal boundary to slide through the forecast area on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a decrease in temperatures and increase in rain chances  is currently in the forecast. Temperatures should cool back to more average levels in the upper 80s lower 90s, and heat index values are expected to finally fall below advisory levels. Overall, a return to a more typical Summer pattern is anticipated next week.