03/03 – Rob Knight’s “Severe Threat” Wednesday Morning Forecast

What will likely be the most impactful weather of the week is expected take place over the next 24 hours. An upper-level low pressure system is currently tracking across northern Mexico. A frontal boundary that moved into the region yesterday is now stalled across southern/central Mississippi and Louisiana.

From central Mississippi down to the Louisiana/Mississippi border in Southwest Mississippi is where the main region where severe thunderstorm development potential is greatest. Southwest Mississippi and the adjacent Louisiana parishes are about the farthest south that severe storms should develop, which is why a Tornado Watch has been issued for those areas.

By mid-morning, the boundary in Mississippi will slide south, effectively shunting surface based potential in South Mississippi. After a late morning lull, models show a surface low will be tracking east along the Louisiana coastline. The warm front will provide the focus for another round of severe potential.

Other impacts for the day are heavy rainfall and fog. Areas of light to moderate fog are in place for much of the area. Models are suggesting that we may be dealing with at least some fog or hazy conditions all day between showers and storms. Those storms could be intense enough at time to result in flash flooding as 2-4″ of accumulation will be possible over the next 24 hours.

The area should be quickly clearing out before sunrise Thursday as the upper low races eastward. Skies will stay cloudy for much of the day, but the rain should be done. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal Thursday but quickly bounce back to and rise above normal Friday into the weekend. Rain looks to be retuning on Monday with the next fast moving system.