9/8 – Rob Knight’s “Cold Frontal Passage” Thursday Morning Forecast
Through the end of the week, an upper level low is expected to influence the area, enhancing rain chances for the region. There are still some uncertainties in the models regarding how much cloud cover will develop and how quickly the environment can destabilize, especially today. Moisture values will still be higher and southerly surface winds will continue to enhance instability for the region. Rain chances are forecast to be generally 60-70% today and 80% Friday. Scattered showers will be possible today, looking at the model consensus. Locally heavy rainfall could be possible in isolated areas.
Friday, the upper level low pressure system is expected to linger in the area, and the general environmental conditions will not change much. Rain chances are higher Friday in the forecast (~80%) to account for the more abundant moisture and higher instability in the environment. This is not set in stone of course and small changes in the environment and the development of the pattern over the next day or two could have a big difference in the rainfall potential. But in general scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible Friday, especially during the afternoon hours. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible in isolated/vulnerable locations, but widespread flooding is not anticipated at this time. Gusty sub-severe (30-60 mph) winds could be possible inside of stronger storms on Friday along with lightning.
Rain chances will begin to decrease closing out the week in advance of another cold front expected early next week.