9/12 – Rob’s Thursday Morning Forecast and Tropical Update

Model solutions are all over the place with the eventual development and placement of this tropical cyclone. This is not unusual before a defined center can be located. And even with
that, the weakness of the system would also play a big role in which direction any particular model solution would bring it. With the difficulties the various models are currently having with this system…we will continue to watch it and develop more of a known track heading into the weekend. One way or another, the Florida peninsula and or the eastern Gulf of Mexico could be dealing with a named storm Sunday into early next week.

We will continue with the dry and hot conditions up to the weekend unless this system does approach which would be the only real chance of rain the area would get in more than 2 weeks. If the European model turns out to be right, it would be a continuation of the dry conditions but with the large amount of mass ejection poleward, it would cause the next deep trough to dig quite a bit bringing a true cold front into the area. Since we are approaching the driest part of the year (October), either of these scenarios would bring some much needed rain before our driest month comes in.

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