8/31 – Rob’s “Tropical Moisture” Tuesday Morning Forecast

Trailing feeder bands in the wake of now remnant Ida will continue to drag across the area thorough today. These bands will slowly press southeastward into the Gulf through the morning and late afternoon. Despite southeastward movement of the band, training thunderstorms through the morning will prolong areas of ongoing flooding and may lead to more areas of flooding, particularly across coastal Mississippi. The Gulf sea breeze will keep thunderstorm chances going into the afternoon for areas along and south of I-10. Meanwhile, slightly drier air will attempt to work into southeastern LA which should scatter out some cloud cover areas north of I-10. Lingering moisture along the Gulf coast and areas inland will keep chances for diurnal convection into Wednesday. Drier airmass will slowly push toward Gulf coast on northerly flow through Wednesday night. Drier air should limit convection to near the coast on Thursday during the daytime hours. A backdoor cold front will approach from the northeast on Thursday night and bring a chance of thunderstorms along its edge.

Temperatures will heat up with more sunshine today, highs will be into the low 90s. Dew-points hanging on in the mid-70s will bring heat index values into the low 100s today. Though this is typical heat this time of year, the lack of cooling due to widespread power outages in our area will lead to heat-related impacts today and again on Wednesday and possible Thursday. A Heat Advisory will go into effect this afternoon and again on Wednesday to highlight impacts.

Dry airmass will infiltrate the Gulf coast on Friday in the wake of backdoor front. The front may stall along the coast or just offshore. Dry conditions will likely persist but isolated showers and afternoon storms near the coast on Saturday. An upstream weakness and high-pressure to the northeast will shift flow southwesterly, bringing Gulf moisture back into the area while promoting the sea breeze on Sunday, increasing chances for scattered storms.

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