8/17 – The Chief’s “Heat Advisory” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The focus late this afternoon and evening will be on convective development to our north and east, moving into south Mississippi. A zone of low-level convergence oriented NW to SE across central MS into SE MS will be lined up with a corridor of higher moisture values. The question here will be how widespread/deep can convection become late in the day, eventually pressing south and maybe southwest with time.

Increased rain potential from yesterday will be in the 40-50%. Something to watch, especially given the heating and instability of the atmosphere will be the potential for a few strong to possibly severe wind gusts and small hail could be possible but will monitor how deep this activity becomes as this will determine the eventual westward extent.

Hot and drier conditions will subside by the end of the week as the surface high pressure yields to an approaching frontal boundary. The leading item to discuss in the extended period is the potential for excessive rainfall across our area on Thursday and continuing into Friday and Saturday as the boundary slows in its progression southward. Ingredients will be favorable for locally heavy rainfall and the potential for isolated flash flooding with ample moisture along with more favorable forcing for ascent as a disturbance digs down into the lower Mississippi River Valley. There is also increasing confidence of heavy rainfall and more widespread coverage on Thursday.

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