8/16 – Rob Knight’s “VERY HOT CONDITIONS” Afternoon Forecast

The focus late this afternoon and evening will be on convective development to our north and east, with short-range guidance identifying a zone of low-level convergence oriented NW to SE across central MS into SE MS. This area, lined up with a corridor of higher moisture will be enough to ignite t-storms. The question here will be how widespread/deep can convection become late in the day, eventually pressing south and maybe southwest with time. Rain chances across coastal MS will be towards 40-50%, with 15-20% towards I-59. Otherwise, no modifications performed to the highs as we’ll likely see heat indices in the 106-112F range supportive of the current advisory in effect.

The upper pattern doesn’t change a lot between now and Wednesday afternoon, with the local area primarily in northwesterly mid- level flow between the ridge to the northwest and the trough to the northeast, with a surface frontal boundary to the north of the area. The one thing preventing me from going with a mostly dry forecast is that any impulse riding through that flow could produce t-storms. As we head toward the end of the week, the ridge to our west weakens a bit and the Bermuda high tries to build back westward into our area. We’ll see some multiple weaknesses across the area as a frontal boundary again attempts to push into the area. Areal coverage of t-storms will be higher as we move into Thursday and Friday with elevated moisture flow.

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