7/8 – Rob Knight’s “Changing Pattern” Thursday Morning Forecast
The upper level pattern analysis shows the typical summertime ridges centered to the west over Arizona and to the east in the Atlantic. In addition to that, there`s a weak upper low centered around south Texas. A trough swinging through the upper Mississippi Valley will keep an area of weakness between the ridges east and west of the local area. That weakness falls right over the area. The interaction of outflow boundaries and sea/land breeze boundaries have been the focus of some recent instances of high rainfall amounts and that will likely be the case as well today. So while the overall threat for flash flooding is too low to justify a flash flood watch, the potential exist for someone in the area to see heavy rain.
A mid/upper level low pressure area is expected to develop across the mid-Mississippi Valley region over the weekend and a trough axis is expected to move/develop slowly southeastward across the Arklatex/lower Mississippi Valley region Sunday and persist into Monday. A deep layer Atlantic high pressure area with a ridge across the north Gulf coast will also likely persist Sunday into Monday.