7/7 – Rob Knight’s “Threat For Heavy Rain” Morning Forecast
The upper level pattern today remains very similar to that of the last several days with the area sitting in a region of weakness between 2 high-pressure systems with ample moisture in place. Moisture content of the atmosphere is considerably higher than the climatological 90th Percentile, as we continue to flirt with the daily records. But this is only one factor to heavy rainfall events. You need that deep layer of high moisture content, instability, and a wind field lined up for training or slow moving. We have all of those meaning the potential is there for heavy rainfall. Thus, we’ll continue the Flash Flood Watch for today. In terms of what to expect, honestly feel like a near repeat of the last couple days.
The pattern will finally start to gradually change Wednesday onward. The ridge centered near the 4 Corners region of the country will begin to deepen and expand eastward. This will increase subsidence and bring in drier air into the column. Rain chances will slowly decrease as this transition takes place with precip chances possibly as low as 20 to 30 percent on Friday. In addition, lower precip chances combined with increasing pressure means high temps will likely begin to soar into the mid-90s this weekend…with potentially a HEAT ADVISORY issued.