7/31 – Rob Knight’s “HOT” Friday Forecast

A disturbance to the NW of the area will begin to amplify and track southward across the mid-west today. Subsidence ahead of this system as well as from ridge over the GOM should inhibit convection for all but late in the day. From a temperature perspective, it should be relatively near normal highs in the lower to mid-90s. Elevated dew-points still in place should bring heat indices into the 100 to 107 degree range. The hot pocket will be along the MS River from New Orleans to Baton Rouge.

On Saturday, the trough slows as it rotates closer to a neutral state over the mid-Mississippi Valley. This will cause the frontal boundary to slow its progression across the area. It will then become a focus for convection pretty much all day. Not sure if the current forecast will be high enough coverage.

Not much change in the expected forecast scenario. Upper disturbances will continue to extend from Quebec and Nova Scotia southwestward into the lower Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys. This puts us in light northwest flow without a lot of moisture return. Several impulses will rotate through the base of this disturbance, and will produce at least some chance of thunderstorms each day, primarily during the afternoon hours. I don’t see much more than 30-40 percent for the most part. Will trend toward the upper end of temperature guidance, as that has worked best most of the summer.

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