7/26 – The Chief’s “Hot Start” Tuesday Morning Forecast

The broad upper level ridge stretching across the CONUS is the main pattern the area will be in for the short term (and majority of the long term as well). The daily diurnally driven convection will continue each day primarily driven by sea-breezes or outflow boundaries that pop up. moisture values continue to stay very elevated so expecting a similar pattern today where storms that form would be extremely efficient rain producers with high rainfall rates but storms should be moving and relatively transitory over any specific area. High temperatures for places that don’t get any rain cooling is expected to be in the low 90s and heat index values in the 100s. Not anticipating an issuance of a heat advisory but it may get close in a few spots especially in the urban areas if they don’t get any relief from rain.

High pressure that had been the dominating pattern will finally begin to shift eastward and weaken starting around the weekend. This is mainly reflected as higher rain chances in the Friday to Sunday period. Starting around Sunday the high pressure will start to build back westward so that will knock down the rain potential again with the increased subsidence. Otherwise not too much change and temperatures should remain around the average for this time of year.