7/2 – Rob Knight’s Thursday Morning “Heavy Rainfall” Forecast
An upper level disturbance will set up over the area for the next few days. This will increase rain chances for the area, especially Friday and Saturday. Due to the slow/minimal motion of the disturbance, the rain that does occur has the chance to produce training rain showers and storms. This setup would allow for the potential for heavy rains/potential flooding for the next few days at least, especially with the ground already being saturated in some locations from afternoon rain showers the last couple days. Another threat could be gusty winds and frequent lightning from these storms as they move through the area, especially with the moisture presence in the atmosphere enhancing the instability. Overall, the main concern for the next few days will be the potential for heavy rainfall from these showers that form.
No significant changes in the extended. Models continue to agree with a rather wet pattern remaining in place for the end of the weekend and the first half of next week. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a chunk of the area receive 3 to 5 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible through the entire event.