7/17 – Rob’s “Round 2” Potentially HEAVY RAIN Forecast

We’re under a very normal deep summer pattern with disturbances rotating around an area of high-pressure to the SW. This ridge will back off just a bit today, or at least just enough to help more of the area get in on some showers/t-storms as well. Activity should be able to get started early as there is some help from broad difluence from the mid-levels upward.

These features will help induce showers/t-storms during the morning especially after sunrise with heating.

All activity should be moving in a general direction toward the south and southwest although not very fast at first, but speed will pick up by afternoon. Downburst winds should be on the order of around 30 mph. Wed, this dry air surge comes in from the north later in the day and delivers a chance of downburst wind speeds over the northern portion of the area mainly over the southwestern Mississippi counties. This surge will also help bring precip numbers down by about 15-20% as well. But that still leaves us with healthy pop numbers around 60% or so.

Precip chances will gradually lower toward the end of the week as the ridge out west nudges east. Then numbers increase again by the start of next week as the ridge nudges back west and a front moves to the southeastern CONUS. The Gulf may remain in an active pattern of showers/t-storms through this period …