7/12 – Rob’s “Warm & Humid” Monday Morning Forecast

[videoembed][/videoembed]Another day, another wet forecast as focus will be out towards our west at a disorganized cluster of showers and storms ongoing across central LA and eastern TX. This activity remains supported by noticeable instability denoted by a broad unstable warm sector across SW LA.

By Tuesday, the upper-level dynamics supporting showers/t-storms upstream of the zonal deep-layer flow exits towards our north, as we settle into overall weaker moisture flow. This slows down storm motion back to a crawl yet again. Models indicate a southeasterly low-level flow taking over, surging several bands of showers/storms from nocturnal convection across coastal waters inland through mid/late AM and into the PM. With weak steering flow, storm propagation will be dependent on boundary interactions but locally heavy rainfall leading to isolated flash flooding concerns will remain a risk. Not anticipating severe weather, as even strong wind gusts will be hard to come by but worthy of watching any stronger storms in such a moist environment.

Upper high-pressure over the Rockies and western Atlantic Ocean will continue to be the main players during the extended forecast period, with afternoon sea-breeze flaring up showers/t-storms.

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