6/30 – The Chief’s “WET CONDITIONS/FLASH FLOODING” Morning Forecast

Onshore flow has been a little more persistent along the Mississippi coast, and a cluster of showers/storms has been moving northward across portions of Harrison, Hancock and Pearl River Counties.

This very saturated airmass isn’t going anywhere over the next 3 days. Rain potential will spend a lot of time above that 70th percentile through the weekend. With disturbances remaining across the area, daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected. No large scale forcing mechanisms, but with the moisture and instability available, we’ll get t-storm development.

One point to add will be the potential FLASH FLOODING along with the possibility for minor coastal flooding in Hancock County this afternoon. With deep moisture and slow storm motions, expect some storms to be efficient rainmakers with rainfall rates in excess of 1-2″ per hour. Instantaneous rates will likely be significantly higher. This will continue to lead to a threat of locally heavy rainfall and localized nuisance or even flash flooding, and it’s not surprise that WPC keeps a daily marginal risk of excessive rainfall across the entire area through at least Friday.

As is typical in this kind of air mass, expect showers and storms to fire over the coastal waters overnight and into the morning hours, waning in those areas as the morning progresses. Over land, expect the best rain chances during the afternoon and early evening hours most places – the main exception being in coastal areas where marine storms could wander onto land in some areas. This pattern will continue through the Independence Day weekend and into early next week.