6/3 – Rob Knight’s “Wet/Tropical” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The tropical air mass is steadily deepening over the area with humid conditions and spotty t-storms/showers. Otherwise, warm temperatures and chance for precip the next couple of days. We will be closely monitoring rainfall efficiency as this will become a factor with each passing day, particularly once Cristobal starts moving more northward in time.

The extended is going to be highly dependent on a low confidence forecast of Tropical Storm Cristobal. Some things that appear to be more certain: heavy rainfall potential will be on the increase with each passing day as the deeper moisture channel streaming from the circulation is squarely over LA and southern MS. Some of the rainfall would be beneficial in mitigating drought conditions but don`t need too much of a good thing. Spring tides will also be in place and will become augmented by deeper fetched onshore flow and tightening pressure gradient to produce a coastal flood threat. This will likely warrant a Coastal Flood Advisory for less than 3 feet of inundation by the weekend, possibly replaced by some type of warning thereafter. Again, it will depend on future track and intensity of Cristobal.

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