6/19 – Rob Knight’s Friday Morning “Summer Begins” Forecast

A slow transition back to a hot humid summer pattern will take place over the weekend. The area will be back in a normal showers/t-storms distribution by the start of the new week. Sunday is still looking like the transition day. The area could use the rain though. As the storm motion becomes more onshore, coastal areas could see this activity around daylight through mid-morning while inland areas will normally wait until the hottest part of the day for the second crop of showers/t-storms. These more normal numbers of showers/t-storms should last through the week.

Once we get beyond Sunday, upper ridging departs the lower Mississippi River Valley. Additional moisture, combined with slightly better lapse rates will allow for more widespread areal coverage of convection. Most of the convection will occur during the late morning and afternoon hours as the convective temperature is reached. Precipitation probabilities in the 40-60 percent range certainly look attainable each day. We’ll likely see overnight development over the coastal waters that could encroach on land not far after sunrise.

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