5/30 – The Chief’s “Memorial Day/Hotter Conditions” Morning Forecast

Much, but not all, of the short term forecast period will be dry, with a good bit of sunshine. A weak disturbance currently across the area will have the potential to produce at least isolated showers/storms during the day today, mainly near lake/sea breeze boundaries near the coast. Any convection that does develop should dissipate quickly by sunset. A stronger impulse will work its way westward underneath the high-pressure and produce a better chance of showers and storms Tuesday afternoon with somewhat better moisture available. Areal coverage of showers and storms will be rather limited on Wednesday afternoon, but we cannot eliminate the possibility entirely.

A weak front moving into the area, stalling, and then dissipating from Thursday and Friday will be the main focus for convective activity during this period of time. The convection should be widely scattered along the front, as fairly strong mid to upper level high-pressure persists over the region. The activity should linger into the early evening hours before dissipating as daytime heating and overall instability wanes. Given the drier air aloft, the potential for some stronger wind gusts to develop out of the deepest cells will exist on Thursday and Friday.

This weekend, isolated thunderstorm could still form along the sea-breeze boundary each afternoon as temperatures climb into the middle 90s.