5/25 – Rob Knight’s “Heavy Rain Threat” Wednesday Morning Forecast

The main concerns are for heavy rain in the first 36 hours of the forecast…or in other words, today and Thursday.

The disturbance swinging through the area this morning should exit to the east by mid-morning, giving the coastal Mississippi counties a very brief break from the showers and storms. The storms currently over eastern Texas could reach the Atchafalaya River Basin by mid to late morning and continue eastward during the daytime hours. This would bring another round of potential heavy rain. The main feature and cold front are expected to move across the area later tonight into Thursday morning with a final round of showers and thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall. With moisture values remaining elevated, rainfall amounts over the next 36 hours are likely to average in the 3 to 5 inch range across much of the area with spot totals possibly well above that if the system slows down at all. A Flood Watch for expected Flash Flooding will be in effect for the entire area through Thursday morning, although portions of it could end up being cleared earlier than that, depending on the speed of the frontal passage. Can’t rule out a few strong to severe storms either, but the primary concern should be heavy rainfall.

Once we dry out on Thursday, lower humidity values will move into the area for Friday. This will provide cooler a cooler morning on Friday, but with plenty of sunshine, we should still see highs in the mid and possibly upper 80s Friday, but with noticeably less oppressive humidity.

High-pressure will move across the area over the weekend into the Ohio River Valley, which will produce easterly flow early next week. Some model solutions indicate a piece of energy working itself westward across the northeast Gulf Coast Tuesday into Wednesday, which could increase chances for precipitation a bit.

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