5/23 – The Chief’s “Sunny & Warm Extended” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A deepening upper level disturbance is situated over the Southeast U.S. An approaching weak backdoor cold frontal  boundary is expected in the region later this afternoon and evening. With the cooler upper levels and amplifying disturbance, expect a continuation of lower end rain chances despite being on the drier side with upper level flow becoming more NW’terly/drier. Although a few afternoon showers/t-storms can be expected, dry air aloft will likely continue to limit vertical extent. Behind the front, winds will increase especially over the nearshore waters as pressure gradient gradually increase winds.

On Wednesday expect low-end rain chances again along the MS Gulf Coast. Daytime highs will be slightly cooler with a cooler/drier air mass moving in and beginning to modify. Expect the lower 80s along the immediate coast with middle and upper 80s generally across the western half of the area.

The long term starts with the region being in a dry northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will wedge down the Appalachian chain, which may help keep humidity values a bit on the lower side. With the drier lower levels and overall a drier column, expect limited rain chances outside of perhaps marine convection over the outer Gulf Waters. Temperatures should remain around average or even a degree or two below early on in the period with the cooler temperatures residing over the eastern portions of the area and warmer conditions closer to the Atchafalaya, similar to the short term period.

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