5/16 – Rob’s Sunny & Warm Afternoon Forecast
Afternoon highs again today will be very warm, as temperatures remain right around or slightly above-average for this time of the year. By tomorrow and Saturday, surface high-pressure responsible for sunny and dry weather will steadily press east off the SE US coastline.
This will help increase better low-level moist Gulf return flow, erode the low-level subsidence. While Friday will be primarily dry with the exception of an isolated shower for western areas, it won’t be until Saturday that more widespread showers/storms develop due to peak afternoon heating.
By Sunday, the next storm system responsible for widespread severe weather across the central US will attempt to work a cold front east through the lower MS Valley region. It is looking more likely that pre-frontal convection will lead well out ahead of a slowing cold front back west, and likely press across the region late Sunday morning through the evening hours. Needless to say, strong storms may very well be possible with gusty straight-line winds the main threat. This front will struggle to push too far east late Sunday and Monday, as the front becomes parallel to the low/mid-level flow. However, the next developing storm system out west will help return the front north as a warm front, drying out the northern Gulf coast early next week.