5/15 – The Chief’s “Triple Digit Heat Indices” Monday Morning Forecast

An upper-level high pressure that has been parked over the area should break down throughout the course of today. Although the ridge should be breaking down, the fact that it will be over the area will provide us with warmer temperature. Guidance suggests dew-points will be slightly higher today, at least causing heat indices to be slightly higher today (upper 90s to even 100). Overall, low-level moisture should increase today as it wraps around the ridge. The overall increase in moisture and breaking down of the high pressure will allow for greater rain chances today, especially areas with better forcing along a sea-breeze. If a storm can sustain itself long enough, expect a heavy rain and possible flash flooding threat.

Tuesday and Wednesday look very similar in terms of weather. The first of two fronts is expected to come through the area on Wednesday. On the bright side, this will cool us off even more closer to average. However, this will increase our rain chances on Wednesday. Rain chances will of course be highest along the boundary as it passes through the area. In terms of active weather…I’m mostly expecting sub-severe winds with any convection that forms.

Behind the front, ridging looks to set back up over the southern plains. This will warm us back up going into the weekend as we get back near 90 on Friday. The ridge will also suppress convection for the most part Thursday and Friday, so even though it will be drier, it will be hotter.