5/15 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Start” Friday Morning Forecast

Weak high pressure is in place over our area and will persist through Saturday. Southerly surface winds today and Saturday will enhance moisture advection and warm air advection into the area from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result, some showers and storms are likely today, especially during the daytime heating hours. In addition, as a result of the weak upper level pattern, some training is possible with these storms. Some areas will be more vulnerable than others regarding the rainfall threat today, in particular the areas that have already received heavy rainfall will be at risk of having flooding issues again should thunderstorms form over those locations. Some gusty winds and frequent lightning are also possible with these storms through the weekend.

Saturday, a low pressure system is expected to move toward our area from the Western US. The subsidence as a result will help to limit rainfall chances Saturday. The possibility for showers and storms is lower than today, but there is still the possibility to see some rainfall Saturday during daytime heating. An upper level disturbance is expected over the Arklatex region by Sunday with the surface low in the same general area. Divergent flow is expected aloft across the forecast area. With this

associated disturbance, strong to severe storms are possible across part of the forecast area with damaging winds possible. As the disturbance shifts east as an upper level low in the northern stream will sag south and meander of the Tennessee valley through mid-next week. The area will see below normal temperatures.

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