5/12 – The Chief’s “Changing Pattern” Thursday Morning Forecast

An upper level low-pressure system currently centered in the western Atlantic will move west into FL/GA today. At the same time, an upper level disturbance to the NW will be swinging northeast across the High Plains. As a result of both of those systems moving to those regions, the upper high-pressure aloft will be getting squeezed both north and south away from the local area. Losing the subsidence from that high pressure will allow for some afternoon convection to start developing today and persist through Saturday.

Coverage will vary from around 20% to upwards of 40%. Looking at model sounding, cooler mid-levels could support small hail and high dew-point depression at the surface may result in gusty winds with the strongest storms of the day. Most, if not all storms, should stay sub-severe but there’s non-zero chance for a storm to become severe. One plus to rain chance returning will be daytime highs a degree or 2 lower than they have been.

After a short change to the pattern allowing storms to return it looks like we will quickly swing back to drier pattern but hopefully not quite as warm. As we finish out the weekend we will remain under northwest flow a little longer but the old closed low will be fully absorbed into the overall pattern. This should allow for one more day of scattered t-storms and highs in the 80s.

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