4/30 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

A quite benign pattern will persist over the region as an upper level ridge tracks from west to east across the area. Expect highs in the lower to mid-80s inland, upper 70s along the coast. This is right at to slightly above climatology for late April/early May.

Rather than continuing east, the upper ridge moving across the area will become anchored across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Wednesday through the end of the week. At the surface, a ridge centered east of the area will allow for a return of moisture. Aloft however, we will still have ample subsidence in place.

A few showers may break out Tuesday before the upper ridge strengthens Wed and Thur. An upper level trough moving across the upper Mississippi Valley Friday will bring low end rain chances during the late afternoon. Rain chances will increase substantially on Saturday as a frontal boundary associated with the second trough moves into the area. Models then show precipitation chances falling off quite a bit Sunday as the shortwave shifts east and the boundary falls apart.

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