4/24 – Payton’s Tuesday Afternoon Forecast
An upper-level trough will be slow to move east over the next few days. Meanwhile a couple of weak cold fronts will move down the back side of the long wave trough bringing showers/t-storms to the southeast US. The first is currently over the western Dakotas. This will begin to move south and strengthen with time. With the long wave trough slow to move, it keeps our area in a northwest flow regime and sometimes these small systems that move through can be aggressive and illusive in this pattern. As this system moves through Wed night into Thursday, dry ridging begins to build over the southern end of the cold front that is associated, causing a good bit of stability and decaying showers/t-storms as they move into the area early Thursday. If there is any strong or severe weather associated with this, most would be north of the area with a possible skirting of the northern tier of our counties/parishes. But at the moment, we will maintain wording of chance of showers with isolated thunderstorms for Wed night and Thursday until a better examination of this short wave can be made once it deepens a bit.
The next system moves through Friday with the same thing occurring to it as well. But most if not all showers/t-storms could dissipate as they move into the area as stability rapidly increases over the front. Moisture return with a normal distribution of showers/t-storms will begin to occur by the start of next week.