4/15 – The Chief’s “Good Friday” Morning Forecast
A zonal flow regime will remain in place across the Gulf South both today and tomorrow in the mid and upper levels. In the low levels, a departing high-pressure will result in winds veering to the southeast today. This low level southeast flow regime should then linger into tomorrow. Ample moisture will be in place each day will bring showers/t-storms and threat of severe storms will be very low.
Tomorrow, a fast moving disturbance will slide into the region, and this feature will once again produce sufficient upper level support for t-storm activity. Sunday will not be entirely dissimilar to Saturday, but the upper level pattern will be slightly different. Long story short, Saturday and Easter Sunday will bring scattered showers and t-storms to the area with strong gusty winds possible.
The beginning and end of this portion of the forecast period looks to be the only active times and impacts should be relatively minimal. On Monday morning, an upper level low-pressure will quickly move east across the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this feature will be passing through if not already into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Due to the upper low being so far north, no severe weather will occur this far south. In fact, most of the convection will be post frontal. Surface high-pressure builds in behind the front will bring in drier and somewhat cooler air. Highs Monday and Tuesday should get knocked down a good 5-8 degrees from Easter Sunday’s solid 80s.