4/13 – Rob Knight’s “Rain Moving In” Afternoon Forecast
We should see showers/t-storms break out rapidly this afternoon. A strong to severe complex of TS should follow a boundary east and SE where it should be near or over Baton Rouge to New Orleans early afternoon. A stalled warm front will give some extra help to support the number of cells for a long distance but also help them pulse to severe and back down again several times.
Dry air aloft to the north of the boundary will entrain and help cause strong/damaging winds, large hail and since it is riding the boundary where converging winds exist, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. These thunderstorms will have very heavy rainfall as well and could drop high precip totals in a short time. Heavy rainfall will be a possibility Wed and through noon Thursday. Rainfall totals could be 3 to 5 inches with isolated higher amounts through noon Thursday. A cold front approaches and could drive the heavy rain producing environment offshore but we will have to watch where this front decides to stall since it will become the next focus for showers/t-storms to develop and move over the same areas.
The biggest focus for this weekend is going to be more heavy rain potential for the area. Currently, most guidance has it offshore, but it wouldn’t take too much for it to be a bit more northward to be right on the coast and bringing additional heavy rain this weekend.