3/22 – The Chief’s “Much Warmer Start” Wednesday Morning Forecast
A the moisture returns and temps getting into the 50s and 60s along with dew point temps, we will need to turn to those variables that could produce fog beginning tonight. Winds should stay too high nearest the coast and a cloud deck at 2k` starts to move in from the west late tonight. I will be calling for patchy fog with lower visibility in some areas than others at different times tonight and Friday morning.
Dry conditions expected until Friday which is when the next cold front is expected. A strong disturbance will move east of the Rockies Friday and into the region Friday afternoon/overnight. This will help cause dynamic lift ahead of the surface front as well as along the front itself. This will be enough to get showers/t-storms going and could help develop a few strong/severe storms later in the day Friday. These numbers and conditions are much higher north and NE of our area. The area will be under a “Slight” severe threat Friday night but night time cooling and stabilization should dampen the threat.
Some activity should start over the western half of the area by mid-afternoon, but the main show moves in with the front moving through later in the evening and overnight hours. Breezy conditions well ahead of the front and this is very common this time of year. The front will stall over the gulf before quickly moving back as a warm front Saturday. As frontogenesis starts in the foothills of the Rockies, with a surface low pressure developing mainly over the northern TX panhandle Saturday, this front will act as its warm front and the new cold front will get its moisture feed from this front. This should set up a large area of rainfall that may be just north of the area but will still need to be watched for placement.