3/22 – Rob Knight’s “Heavy Rain” Workweek Forecast
Biggest concern for the short term will be the potential for several rounds of heavy rain for the area. Overall current pattern has high-pressure southeast pushing eastward as low-pressure intensifies as it moves into the Great Plains Tuesday then into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region on Wednesday. Strong moisture advection from the Gulf will start on Tuesday, and with this rich moist air hanging around through Thursday, setting the stage up for the aforementioned heavy rainfall threat. Rainfall and efficient thunderstorms along with them training is also a concern Tuesday and Wednesday. Rainfall totals are looking at the 5 to 8 inches with locally heavier amounts possible over through Thursday.
The secondary disturbance is expected to move northeast from Texas across the middle to lower Mississippi Valley Thursday and Thursday night. The associated surface low, now trending quite a bit weaker on consecutive model runs, is fairly elongated from the western Gulf coast to the Arklatex to middle Mississippi Valley region through the day with the models having differing locations. A weak cold front will finally push through the region Thursday night; however this will only bring some drier air and not much cooler temperatures. Drier (not as wet) weather, but still some low rain chances from time to time, will persist Friday through the weekend, and hopefully additional rainfall will remain light since the area will be more than water-logged by that point with river flooding likely ongoing or worsening on some rivers at that point. A more substantial push of drier air with some cooler temperatures may finally arrive Sunday night.