3/2 – The Chief’s “Low End Severe Threat Overnight” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

Warm and breezy conditions ahead this afternoon with a storm system developing to the west. A strong upper level disturbance begins to move from Texas into the mid MS River Valley this evening. I’m still watching the potential for severe weather along or ahead of the front. Models indicate a very thin line of showers/storms moving west to east tonight into Friday morning. Most of the upper level forcing and instability will be just north of our region.

By Friday morning the short term system will begin to move away from our region. There still could be a shower or clap of thunder in our far eastern coastal zones. Otherwise, CAA will begin. The air mass behind the system will be Pacific in nature meaning our temperatures will probably only drop off to near normal for early March. The front looks to stall over the central Gulf of Mexico over the weekend as high pressure begins to settle over the region. Models have the front lifting back to the north as the high continues downstream allowing for a return flow to take place late into the weekend to start another warming trend. Additionally, along the front with moisture advection a few showers may be possible on Monday.