3/15 – Rob Knight’s “Warming” Afternoon Forecast
As high pressure overhead now to our east…the return flow from the GOM has begun. The warming trend will continue into the overnight period in a more dramatic fashion, with overnight lows as much as 20 degrees warmer.
A cold front will reach the northern Gulf coast states Friday afternoon. The boundary itself doesn’t look very impressive but it will bring a SEVERE THREAT to our NW. The main threats will be hail and strong downdrafts.
Elevated rain chances will continue into Saturday due to the stalled frontal boundary north of the area and moisture still being in place. Thunderstorm coverage will increase again on Sunday but more so from the next approaching system. Models show a closed low racing across the southern portion of the Central Plains Sunday into Sunday night. Local showers and thunderstorm development will be enhanced by lowering surface pressures and lift along a pre-frontal trough swinging through. The actual cold front will not get here until Tuesday morning when another trough digs south across the lower Mississippi Valley. Broad troughing will then persist across the area through much of the rest of next week. This will keep temps at to below normal during that time frame.