3/1 – Rob Knight’s “Approaching Cold Front” Morning Forecast
The current upper level setup shows high-pressure over the Gulf of Mexico, weak low west of Texas and an approaching cold front to the NW. As today progresses, both troughs will shift eastward. This will slowly drive the cold front south and through the area. Expect showers and scattered thunderstorm coverage to increase locally as that occurs, especially late afternoon through the evening hours.
While normally rain chances would be coming down tonight after a front passes through. The difference this time is that aforementioned weak low in Texas will be tracking east towards the Arklatex region. This will keep rainfall in the region through Tuesday night. Tuesday late morning this secondary area of low-pressure will track overhead, thus bringing the greatest coverage, basically 100%, and most intense rain. Looking at up to a few inches of rain across the area now through this time frame. The remainder of Tuesday evening through Wednesday will be characterized by high pressure building in, drying out, and cooling down. Expect temps to remain below normal for a day before rebounding back up.
By Thursday, high pressure will dominate a large portion of the MS valley region and eastern US, promoting dry and calm conditions. Highs warming ever so slightly from Wednesday back to the upper 60s to even a few lower 70s bringing us closer to climatological normal for this time of the year. Another, weak system will move through Friday night into Saturday morning.