The persistent low-pressure anchored across the southeastern states is beginning to flatten out/deamplify as strong high-pressure builds over the southern Plains. The area however still remain in a largely northerly flow aloft…which will help prevent widespread convection today. The same very weak surface high stuck around the northern Gulf will steadily parade east across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and across the Florida Peninsula, helping build a southerly return flow from the Gulf beginning today. What will likely occur later this afternoon…will be a strong seabreeze boundary racing northward from the coast as a warm front. Higher surface dew-points will surge north basically covering the entire area by around sunset tonight. For areas that encounter this airmass change of higher dew-points at the time of peak afternoon heating.
Going into this weekend, this airmass change of higher dew-point air at the surface will drag forecast convective temperatures down during peak afternoon mixing on Saturday, leading to much better chances of isolated to scattered showers/storms. Generally speaking, we return to a normal summertime pattern beginning the day on Saturday, along with afternoon highs ranging in the mid-90s. With the increase of surface moisture and slight nudge up in afternoon highs, peak afternoon heat indices will range in the 100-105 degree range, so we are not anticipating any excessive heat issues at this time.