Surface high-pressure over the mid-Mississippi Valley will shift southeast over the Mid-Atlantic states by Tuesday. Northeast to east flow will remain across the north half of the forecast area today and Tuesday and more east to southeast across the south half. Heat index values will approach the century mark at several spots, but remain below heat advisory criteria through Tuesday.
Upper level low/trough out west will track east through the week and is expected to deepened over the southern Plains Thursday into Friday. In addition, this system will tap gulf moisture with a moisture axis moving across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon through Thursday and linger over the area Friday and possibly Saturday. Daytime heating and moisture will lead to scattered to numerous convection on Thursday. Moisture will remain in place Friday and Saturday and rain chances will remain elevated. The main system will lift northeast during the latter part of the weekend and will decrease rain chances for Sunday.