5/20 – Rob Knight’s Monday Morning “HOT” Forecast

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A lingering low level moisture axis across the region will interact with a developing sea-breeze boundary to spark off some isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during early afternoon hours. Convection will be most pronounced along and north of the I-10 corridor as the sea-breeze pushes inland through the afternoon hours. Fortunately, these thunderstorms will remain on the weak side with only some lightning strikes and brief downpours anticipated. The activity will quickly dissipate early this evening as instability wanes. Conditions look favorable for another round of patchy radiation fog and low clouds to develop over parts of southern Mississippi late tonight.

With sinking air and warmer mid-level temperatures in place, cloud development will be largely suppressed tomorrow and Wednesday. Compressional heating associated with the subsidence will also push temperatures in the lower 90s each day. A very stagnant weather pattern will dominate the Gulf South through Memorial Day. Deep layer ridging will be in firm control the entire period. Subsidence associated with this ridging will keep cloud development and rain chances suppressed through the entire forecast period, and daytime highs will run a good 5 degrees above average in the middle 90s over inland areas and the lower 90s along the coast.

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Fortunately, a relatively dry airmass will remain in place, so humidity and heat index values will not be substantially higher than the air temperature. At worst, it looks like heat index readings could climb into the upper 90s over the upcoming holiday weekend.