2/7 – Rob Knight’s WET “Hump Day” Forecast
A strong southeast surface and southwest flow in the mid-levels has caused Gulf moisture to surge northward. The atmosphere is completely saturated all the way up to 30,000 ft. along with elevated precipitation values. While in some situations that may suggest flash flooding issues, todays scenario looks to be quite progressive. A cold front will be swinging through the area mid-afternoon. Models show a swath of intense showers and thunderstorms moving through with the cold front, followed by a lull and then more weak showers well behind the front later this afternoon and evening. Model soundings do show enough mid-level drying for steep lapse rates and increasing instability…which could lead to a few strong to severe thunderstorms to develop this morning along the cold front (northern Mississippi). The main threats will likely be hail with the low end chance for a tornado. The threat will diminish with time as the boundary moves from north to south over the area.
Another consequence of the early morning front is that daytime highs are likely occurring at this moment for at least half of the forecast area. Temps will steadily fall from mid upper 60s to mid to upper 40s by sunset for locations that the front comes through first.
Continued cold air advection overnight will drop temps by as much as 30 degrees compared to this morning. Thursday will just be a continuation of tonight with much cooler air moving in through the day. This will keep temps from warming up much more than about 60 degrees tomorrow, if even that.