2/4 – Rob Knight’s Friday-Eve “Much Warmer” Morning Forecast
The moderation of air mass has already began as high pressure has moved to the NE. With the return flow back in effect, high temperatures today will climb into the upper 60s. A disturbance moving through the Great Lakes tonight/Friday will help drive a cold front into the area early Friday. This front will initially have a good push south into the area but as the flow aloft remains zonal this front will have little support to continue to drive south. This will lead isolated rain tonight with a good chance of rain through the day Friday. We may not completely dry out till Saturday night as another disturbance works through the flow over the Mid MS Valley and into the TN Valley. The cloudy wet dreary day Friday and into Saturday will keep things cool.
Confidence remains low in the extended portion of the forecast. Models have remained consistent in holding the cold air well north of the region Sunday and into next week. All deterministic runs and ensemble have backed off and continue to trend warm.
The forecast will trend warmer for Sunday through Tuesday. As for the forecast heading into the middle to back half of the workweek next week, we will have to watch the evolution of the pattern as there will likely be a good shot of cold air working south. The eastern 2/3rd of the CONUS could see below to well below normal temps for the mid to second half of February.