2/2 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Wednesday” Morning Forecast
Today we will see the moisture axis that is currently draped north to south over southeastern Louisiana almost stall out and continue to sit over the area as it gets caught between a surface low to the west and high-pressure to the east. This keeps precip chances for the very short terms generally in the 50-75% range, with some areas not out of the question of seeing up to an inch of rainfall through this evening. Given the very dry conditions we’ve had lately, an inch of rain shouldn’t cause any flash flooding issues.
The main story of the short term comes with the next round of rain and possible storm chances on Thursday as a cold front swings down into the area. This front quickly moves SE towards our region, but slows down quite a bit over our area as it moves under SW flow aloft. This brings up a few things…the first thing being the chance of strong to severe thunderstorms on Thursday. A couple of strong to severe storms are definitely not out of the question, but would most likely need to be tied directly to the frontal boundary itself. The next risk will be that of heavy rainfall. The moisture flow and a low level jet right over the area highlighted by the WPC for the slight risk area which helps the heavy rainfall potential as well. The front will continue to the east Friday with slow clearing thorough Friday evening. The weekend will bring sunshine and colder temperatures, with daytime high struggling to make the low/mid 50s.