2/2 – Rob Knight’s “Cold Groundhog Day” Morning Forecast

Deep layer northwest flow on the backside of a strong trough dominating the eastern third of the nation will continue to usher a cooler and drier airmass into the Gulf South. Temperatures tonight will drop quickly due to the combination of light winds and clear skies, and have forecast lows dipping into the lower 30s.

High-pressure is expected to quickly shift to the east of the forecast tomorrow night, and increasing southerly flow off the Gulf will quickly take hold. This will allow for rising dew-points and higher overnight lows in the 40s. This onshore flow should only intensify for Thursday and Thursday night in response to another low pressure system passing north of the region. Strong warm air advection from the central Gulf will allow highs to warm into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Cloud cover will also be on the increase through the day, but there should be just enough dry air in the mid-levels to keep any shower development at bay through the afternoon hours. However, by Thursday night a frontal boundary is expected to slide into the area. This should support the development of showers along and ahead of the front through the overnight hours. Temperatures will be much warmer with readings only expected to fall into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Initially, the cold front will continue to push through the forecast area on Friday. As the front pushes offshore during the day, a shallow layer of cooler air will be overridden by a warmer and moist airmass just off the surface. This will keep cloudy skies and rain showers in place throughout Friday and into Friday night. Temperatures will be near average with highs in the lower 60s and lows in the 40s.

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