2/16 – Rob’s “VERY COLD Fat Tuesday” Afternoon Forecast
It might not be the coldest Mardi Gras (Fat Tuesday) on record, but it’s not going to miss by much, with temperatures running about 25F below normal.
Most of the area should see a good bit of sunshine today, which will be needed to melt the ice and sleet especially interior counties. Most of the area won’t get out of the 30s today. After sunset, we may get into a situation where temperatures drop off several degrees shortly after sunset, then level off or rise for the rest of the night, as the cold air departs and warm advection begins.
The next disturbance will begin to pull into Texas on Wednesday, with a surge of moisture into the region by Wednesday morning. When precipitation starts to break out on Wednesday, it could possibly start as freezing rain or sleet over SW Mississippi during the morning hours on Wednesday before quickly turning to rain. With ample forcing and moisture in place, fairly widespread rainfall (1 to 2 inches on average) is expected to develop across the entire forecast area by Wednesday afternoon and then persist into Wednesday evening. Model soundings indicate a fair degree of mid- level instability to the north of the front. The main concern in this area will for small hail, for areas south of the front in coastal…tornadoes, strong winds, and hail will all be a concern to the south of the warm front Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The low is expected to sweep to the east of the area Wednesday night and the threat of severe thunderstorms will also shift more toward Alabama and Florida. A cold front will begin to sweep into the area, and colder temperatures will follow suit. Once again, this will be a very shallow pool of colder air that advects into the area, and lingering showers will persist through Thursday morning.