1/4 – Rob 1st “Friday-Eve” of 2018 Forecast

Deep polar trough continues to impact all of the eastern half of the U.S. This will be the case through at least tonight. That means the focus on the short-term will be temperatures and dew-points. Hard freeze conditions are being experienced this morning and expected again tonight. The driest of air has yet to reach the area, with models show low teen dew-points coming in overnight. Surface ridge tracking west to east across northern LA and MS will enhance cold air drainage as well. The combination of lower dew-points and decent radiation cooling should bring lows back into hard freeze category for one last time this week.  The deep trough will begin to deamplify while lifting northeast Friday into Saturday. Local temperatures will respond by moderating 5 degrees or so each day, as the cloud cover will begin increasing from the south and southwest…otherwise, quiet weather continues.

The surface high pressure will begin to shift east, meaning the return flow will start slowly bringing moisture back to the region. Relatively higher dew-points will be surging northward Sunday morning ahead of the next approaching system. Showers will begin developing across the region from west to east Sunday afternoon. Good model agreement on timing and location the low has led to keeping 90 to 100% rain chances for Sunday night into Monday. A few thunderstorms will be possible due to the close proximity of the upper low. Rain should quickly clear out Monday afternoon and then looking at a dry forecast most of the rest of next week.

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