12/6 – Rob Knight’s “Modifying To A WARMER Air Mass” Forecast
Upper-level clouds will move into the area today as an area of high-pressure is now to our NE. Friday morning low-level clouds should move in with areas of patchy fog as a warmer/humid air mass begins to affect the area.
A surface low-pressure system will continue to develop in Texas and move east across the northern GOM Saturday. This will bring light rainfall Friday night then the heavier rain will move through as the low moves in for Saturday. The timing of the heaviest rain looks to be into the early afternoon hours. The rainfall process should be fairly robust but the system will spend little time over the area as it should be moving quickly ENE. A cool rain will be over much of the area. Numbers for severe weather are not impressive, but depending on the exact track of the low, a few strong thunderstorms could affect the coast.
Regardless of thunderstorms, winds could be a problem for some. Winds will be east mainly in the 10-15 mph range but gusts will be anywhere from 20 mph for most locations while a few open areas could reach gusts to 30 mph Saturday as the low approaches. The coastal waters are almost sure to have some strong activity. But for the most part, inland areas should observe a wet, windy, cool system. The rainfall will likely be intense enough to cause the normal flooding of low lying and poor drainage areas and the entire area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall. At the moment all areas should receive 1 to 3 inches but isolated higher amounts are almost sure to occur.