12/27 – Brantly’s “Warming Up” Sunday Night Forecast
High pressure centered over the Southeastern United States will remain in control over the next few days. Southerly winds at the surface will allow the airmass over our region to modify through the first half of the week with unseasonably warm temperatures expected. High temperatures will range nearly 10 to 15 degrees above normal for late December. Lows will be similarly above the normal values. Meanwhile, dry conditions will be noted as the high pressure strengthens and builds up the Eastern Seaboard. With this set-up, Gulf moisture will spread north with cloud cover increasing through the week.
More uncertainty is expected in the long term as the previously mentioned upper level trough moves across the Southern Rockies and into the Southern Plains. Model guidance in the medium to long range suggests that the upper level storm system will strengthen as it moves eastward and potentially develop into a northern/southern stream system. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase through the day Wednesday as moisture surges north over the area and upper level disturbances eject eastward from the base of the southern stream upper level trough.
High temperatures for the week will likely peak on Weds with readings in the upper 60s to lower 70s expected. On Thursday, the upper level low will dig deep across the Mexican Plateau before lifting north across Texas and into Louisiana and Arkansas bringing a cold front into the region Strong dynamics are expected with this system as the trough becomes negatively titled. This storm system has the potential to bring locally heavy rainfall across the northern half of the area with even some severe thunderstorms possible as well. The exact timing and mode of severe weather will depend on the position of the trough and surface front and will need to be refined with later forecasts as we move closer to the event. However, at the very least, some storms capable of producing damaging winds may develop Thursday afternoon and into the nighttime hours of New Years Eve. As such, 2020 will potentially go out with a “bang” of severe weather…because 2020.
Behind the passage of the frontal boundary, high pressure will return to ring in the New Year on Friday with cooler highs back in the 50s and lows in the lower to mid 30s to mid 40s. Dry weather and increasing sunshine can be expected for next weekend.