12/26 – The Chief’s “MUCH WARMER TEMPS AHEAD” Monday Morning Forecast
While the main upper level disturbance is moving off the East Coast, another minor feature is diving down the west side of the trough over Iowa this morning.
The word for the next couple of days is moderation. As the high pressure shifts off to the east today, winds will come around to the south briefly, before a “cold” front moves through after midnight. Temperatures aren’t significant colder behind the front, and may actually be warmer. Most or all of the area should still get into at least the lower 50s today. Overnight lows tonight will likely fall just below freezing over northern sections and low to mid 30s over the south. That does assume, however, that we get rid of the clouds early enough for temperatures to fall off that far. Mostly sunny skies on Tuesday should allow highs in the mid and upper 50s, and can`t rule out a few spots topping 60.
Winds quickly turn southerly Tuesday night and Wednesday as upper high pressure builds along the East Coast, and a surface high anchors there. This will bring a much more moist and warmer airmass from the central and southern Gulf of Mexico to the local area. highs Wednesday will get close to 70, but as we get later in the day, moisture will have increased enough to initiate the development of low clouds, and probably sea fog as the very warm and moist air moves over the cooler nearshore shelf waters. That fog could get advected onshore, especially near the Mississippi coast, on Thursday, and may be tough to break up. Areas that do see sunshine on Thursday will get well into the 70s, probably mid 70s. If fog hangs in across some areas, those areas won`t get out of the 60s.
A disturbance moving out of the Rockies will lift northeast toward the Great Lakes Friday and Saturday. Heavy rainfall definitely appears to be much more of a threat at this time, with probabilities of rainfall exceeding 2 inches running greater than 40 percent across much of the area. The main threat window will be Friday afternoon and Friday night.