11/3 – Rob’s “Warm & Humid” 1st Weekend of November Forecast
It has been a quiet night for the region. Fog was the main concern overnight, with areas of dense fog along the Southern 6. Forecast thinking really hasn’t changed much over the last few days. A trough of low-pressure currently moving into the ARKLATEX will quickly work east into TN and weaken while the next trough currently moving into the TX/OK panhandles will amplify as it approaches the Lower MS valley this evening. It will continue to work east into AL before diving southeast around the building ridge over Mexico, Texas and the western Gulf. With the trajectory of this disturbance the bulk of the forcing is still expected to be well north of the region. In addition little to no Low-Level convergence will be over the area. With that convection may be rather hard to come by today. Outside of a few diurnally driven showers we may not see much in the way of rain unless whatever complex develops with the trough of low pressure over north LA today surges south this evening due to cold pooling effects.
Fog is still the greatest concern tonight as conditions will not be much different than what we currently have but one more day of priming the air mass could be what is needed. In fact guidance is far more bullish on fog potential tonight and especially Saturday night. This weekend as the trough of low pressure dives southeast across the eastern Gulf and FL, the mid level ridge will begin to build in over the region. Rising heights and warmer LL temps on Sunday will continue to lead to above normal temps. Not anticipating any records on Sunday but this may not be the case as we head into next week. The ridge will continue to dominate the region and much of the Gulf over the first few days of the new work week. Above seasonal temps and no rain with generally sunny skies will contribute to that potential. The one aspect working against record heat is we are seeing less and less sunlight. With each passing day we lose a few more minutes of sunlight and combine that with the lower sun angle and given that the ridge is not anything substantial could be just enough for us to remain just below records. If highs on Monday and Tuesday get to around 85-87 then we should see a few locations break records.