11/22 – Payton’s Wednesday Morning Forecast

A cold front will continue to move through the area this morning. Upper analysis shows a southern stream trough moving into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, a northern trough draped across the
Great Lakes and Appalachian Mountains, and ridges well to the east
and west. Radar imagery shows rainfall associated with the southern
trough is moving south and will be a mostly coastal issue by
daybreak. Things are slightly more complex at the surface.
Observations show that the southern disturbance has drawn some drier
air into the area ahead of the actual cold front to the north. This
has induced development of a pre-frontal surface trough. It will be
moving south across the area over the next few hours. The
continental air mass associated with the northern upper trough will
likely not reach the northern area zones until late morning and track
across the area through the early afternoon. This cold front will be
bringing another round of cold mornings with temperatures falling
into the 30s Thanksgiving and Friday.

Into the weekend area will generally remain under troughing going through this
weekend. Temperatures will try to rebound Saturday as the upper
level pattern bulges east before another trough dives southeast out
of Canada across the northeastern US. In response to this, a
reinforcing cold front will swing through the forecast area Saturday
night and keep the area below normal through Monday.

A change in the pattern will finally take place early next week.
Upper ridge that had been stationary to the west of the region will
track east across the Gulf South late Monday through late Tuesday.
Increasing column heights will allow for temperatures to return to
normal or slightly above. Both GFS and ECMWF show a trough following
the movement of the ridge and bring the next chance of rainfall to
the area.

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