11/28 – Rob Knight’s “Clearing Skies” Monday Morning Forecast

A pleasant day ahead with high-pressure to the NW shaping the short-term forecast. The primary headline to monitor beyond today is severe weather and excessive rainfall potential associated with the next frontal system on Tuesday night into Wednesday followed by cooler temperatures behind the front. A gradual warm up can be expected thereafter into the weekend with only slight rain chances as winds flip and moisture returns on Friday night into Saturday across the western area.

Strengthening of the moisture flow over the southern plains will thus enhance low-level instability from the Gulf of Mexico and provide more a more favorable environment for severe weather up into the Ark-La-Tex region by Tuesday afternoon. Wind profiles will be most favorable for discrete convective activity in the warm sector as storms initiate on Tuesday afternoon north and west of our area. As we move into the evening and overnight hours, the surface low begins to speed off to the northeast leaving behind less favorable, unidirectional wind profiles that favor more linear convective modes which would still be capable of carrying a severe wind threat for the northwest half of the area as the frontal boundary encroaches. Excessive rainfall will be the other side of this event with moisture return to near the climatological daily maximum.

After the cold front on Wednesday afternoon, temperatures will fall to slightly below average into Thursday before gradually rebounding back toward more seasonable temperatures by the weekend. A weak disturbance Friday in addition to winds switching back and enabling moisture return could enhance slight chances for showers Friday night into Saturday, but coverage appears to be fairly sparse.

Categories: Weather Headlines