10/30 – Rob’s “Cold Start to the Workweek” Monday Forecast

The return flow will start on a gentle note today later today as winds will switch to eh SW for a brief period this afternoon. This would normally bring moisture back into the area but dew-point temperatures don`t show a fast recovery since the dry air is well south of the area over the Gulf of Mexico. And this also may be why models do not want to indicate any fog production tonight and or Wed morning as well. But it would be hard to say we won`t see any fog at all even if visibility levels only dip to around 1 to 3 miles. This won`t be included yet in the forecast but should be more prevalent by mid-week. Another front will slow and stall as it approaches the area from the north tonight into Tuesday morning. It is interesting that all these variables (especially the stalling front) cause the perfect scenario that supports dense fog with the only major exception being dew=point temperature values.

Yet another front will approach from the northwest and stall well away from the area but it will help get a deeper moisture fetch started. The deeper moisture will interact with some jet dynamics for lift causing some showers/t-storms activity to develop Wednesday through the remainder of the week. A few embedded disturbances will move northeast inside the main upper flow enhancing the showers/t-storms activity a bit. The first of these will move through Wed night. Rain chances and consequently, total rainfall values will show a tight gradient oriented from higher values northwest to lower southeast as it bisects the area. High pressure will ridge into the area from the northeast after the weekend to bring rain chances lower for the start of next week.

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